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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.