UK Diplomats Advised Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed papers show that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential courses of action.

Isolation Strategy Considered Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was failing, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the documents were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military intervention would cause heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we assess that no African state would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The paper adds: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We should work out a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.