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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Aussie side celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Older Squad Fascination Grows

For two or three years there has been growing curiosity with the age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is unusual to have nearly all player in a Test team being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test team featuring a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed retirements, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a process that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, change is here, forced upon this Aussie team in the space of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the team management assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the balance experiences a much more significant change with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Test matches entering the attack after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the first Test may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after that match, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in series and a pattern of initially small injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the series may witness the primary four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane choice, but after that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is not the place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the visiting team. You can hear that train a-coming, coming around the bend, and England hasn't seen the success since they can't recall when.