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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the award. However, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

However the latest competition is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers improving in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still